Why a 1°C Temperature Rise Could Mean Less Snowfall at Australia’s Ski Fields

As winter creeps in and those cold mornings have me reaching for gloves before my coffee, I’ve found myself thinking about heading to the snow and hoping for a decent season. But this year, there’s also a nagging thought in the back of my mind—will there even be enough snow? And for how much longer will we be able to count on reliable winters at our favourite alpine spots?

It doesn’t take a dramatic temperature spike to make a noticeable difference. In fact, just a 1°C rise in average temperature can have a significant impact on snowfall and the health of our alpine ecosystems.

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How Can Just 1°C Have Such an Impact?

It might seem small, but in the delicate balance of alpine climates, a 1°C increase can be the difference between snow and rain. Australia’s ski resorts—including Thredbo, Perisher, Falls Creek, and Mt Buller—sit at relatively low elevations compared to overseas resorts, making them particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures.

Warmer air holds more moisture, but it also means that precipitation is more likely to fall as rain rather than snow—especially at lower altitudes. Warmer temperatures also accelerate snowmelt, reducing the number of days snow stays on the ground. This doesn’t just shorten ski seasons; it disrupts local ecosystems and the communities and businesses that rely on winter tourism.

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The Statistics Paint a Stark Picture

• Long-Term Decline: Analysis of snow depth data from 1954 to 2023 at sites like Spencers Creek (1840 m elevation) reveals a consistent downward trend of about 0.4–0.6 cm per year over the past 70 years.
• Temperature and Precipitation Changes: Since 1950, the annual average temperature in the Australian Alps has risen by approximately 1.4°C, while average annual precipitation has decreased by around 140 mm. These changes contribute to reduced snow depth, area, and duration.
• Future Projections: Climate models indicate that by 2050, maximum snow depths at resorts like Falls Creek and Mount Hotham could decline by 30–70% under a low emissions scenario and by 45–90% under a high emissions scenario.

So while I’m thinking about heading to the snow this year, it’s sobering to realise that every degree of warming edges us closer to a future where those kinds of winters become rare—or even a thing of the past.

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What Does This Mean for the Future of Australian Winters?

If we want to preserve our iconic snowfields for future generations, urgent action on reducing emissions is critical. At Climate Logic, we work with businesses to measure their carbon footprint and implement real strategies to reduce emissions. Every tonne of carbon we keep out of the atmosphere helps protect the places—and seasons—we love.

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Want to Be Part of the Solution?

Whether you’re a business looking to reduce your environmental impact or an individual passionate about preserving Australia’s winters, there’s a role for everyone to play. Contact us today to see how Climate Logic can help you take meaningful steps toward a more sustainable future.