Three Years Left: The World Nears the 1.5°C Climate Threshold Sooner Than Expected

Climate Logic has reviewed the latest scientific assessment covered by the BBC — and the warning is clear: the world could exhaust its remaining “carbon budget” for limiting global warming to 1.5°C within just three years if current emissions trends continue. Based on findings from over 60 leading climate scientists, this update confirms that the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target is slipping rapidly out of reach.

The Shrinking Carbon Budget

Back in 2015, nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement with a shared goal: keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That figure isn’t arbitrary — it marks a critical tipping point. Beyond it, the risks to communities, ecosystems and infrastructure rise sharply, and some impacts become irreversible.

As of early 2025, the world’s remaining “carbon budget” for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C sits at just 130 billion tonnes of CO₂. Yet annual emissions are currently over 40 billion tonnes. At this pace, the budget vanishes by 2028 — pushing us past the threshold shortly after.

“Everything is trending in the wrong direction,” said Professor Piers Forster, lead author of the study. “We are witnessing extraordinary changes, and the warming of the planet along with the acceleration of sea-level rise is also increasing.”

Evidence of Accelerating Change

In another landmark moment, 2024 was the first year on record where average global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C for a full calendar year. While the Paris Agreement refers to long-term averages, this still signals a dangerous trajectory.

Global warming is now progressing at roughly 0.27°C per decade — far faster than any time in the last 2,000 years. The climate impacts are no longer future risks; they’re here now: worsening heatwaves, more destructive floods and fires, crop failures, and accelerating sea-level rise.

What’s at Stake?

This threshold isn’t just symbolic. Even at 1.5°C of warming, nearly 1 billion people could face water stress, crop losses could exceed $63 billion, and up to 14% of species may face extinction risk. Surpassing 1.5°C would amplify all of these risks — including the collapse of coral reef systems and greater threats to food security, health and infrastructure.

Is There Still Hope?

Yes — but it requires action at speed and scale. Rapid, deep emissions cuts can still change our path. Unfortunately, global progress is lagging. Of 42 tracked climate milestones for 2030, only electric vehicle adoption is on pace. Fossil fuel use and deforestation remain stubbornly high.

Some governments and corporations are banking on future carbon removal technologies — but these are unproven at the scale required. Delaying action in hope of a future solution is no longer a viable strategy. The science and data we work with daily makes that abundantly clear.

What Happens Next?

If emissions continue unchecked, the world is likely to breach the 1.5°C threshold around 2030. The World Meteorological Organisation now estimates a 70% chance that the average global temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C — and an 80% chance that at least one year in that period will set a new record.

Conclusion

The next three years are pivotal. We face a choice: continue down the current path and accept a hotter, more volatile world — or act decisively to cut emissions and protect a livable future. At Climate Logic, we partner with businesses and organisations ready to lead meaningful climate transformation. If you’re ready to take action, let’s get started.

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